By Gabriel Oguda
Prof. Peter Anyang Nyong’o will win the Kisumu Central Constituency vote. Which means Jack Ranguma has to sweep Kisumu West & Kisumu East clean for him to have a fighting chance against the son of Ratta. Because The latest IEBC figures put Kisumu Central at 120,000 votes, the highest in all the 25 Luo Nyanza constituencies, and the most cosmopolitan.
The kingdom of Kano, with Nyando, Muhoroni and pockets of Kisumu East, did not turn up to offset the formbook during the IEBC voter registration exercise, and Jack Ranguma’s silverback brag now has to rely on strategy rather than ethnicity, to claw back crucial support that has been chipping away since Prof. Peter Nyong’o threw his think tank brain into the ring.
Kisumu West have traditionally voted with Raila Odinga since its inception in 1997. Unless Olago Aluoch openly campaigns for Jack Ranguma, there is no way the ineffective incumbent will walk away with even one-third of the vote next month. At 74,000 odd votes, Kisumu West have the third highest outlay marginally behind Kisumu East (Jack Ranguma’s only stronghold of the top three, and which he must drag to the ballot to the man for him to stay in contention).
And it’s a mountain of a task.
Of the 5 Wards making Kisumu East, two are rinsed off the Kano clan hegemony. If the people of Manyatta A and Nyalenda B with more than two-fifth of Kisumu East votes, put a millstone on Jack Ranguma’s neck, and even if Nyando and Muhoroni comes through for their slippery-sloping son, to the last man, there is no way Jack Ranguma is digging himself out of this hole he created for himself.
Both running mates come from Nyakach, which is advantage Team Nyong’o since Nyakach have always voted with Kano. The people of Seme, with 53,000 votes, will not be needed to rescue our son. But we shall be there, anyway, just in case Jack Ranguma pulls a rabbit out of his bag and there will will be need for for a tie-breaker.
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